Pamela Cruz. Peninsula 360 Press [P360].
So far in the U.S. there are 10.5 million cumulative cases and 250,000 regrettable deaths from COVID-19 due to lack of monitoring of health measures to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, so specialists predict that a third wave of the virus will leave, by mid-December, 2,000 dead per day.
According to Tung Nguyen, professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), between 120,000 and 150,000 people are infected daily and about 1,000 die, so when a third outbreak occurs, the numbers will be much higher than the first two.
"This is happening at a very difficult time, the flu season has not even started and we are already receiving reports that hospitals are receiving a significant number of patients. In addition, health workers are also dying and we have reached the point where there are no longer enough staff to care for the increasing number of patients," Nguyen said.
In that sense, he explained that anyone with a medical condition that needs hospitalization during the following months will be impacted by the current escalation of cases in the country.
For his part, Dr. Nirav R. Shah, a senior researcher at Stanford University's Center for Research in Clinical Excellence, said the current figures should not come as a surprise, and we should not wait until the new incoming federal administration, led by President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, begins to make changes to see positive results.
"The lack of leadership on many levels has brought us to this point and what we need is a strong, unified voice that we can all agree on and that will take us back to control, as other countries have done," Nirav R. Shah said during the virtual session "COVID-19 Infections Increase as U.S. Faces Third Wave of Pandemic," conducted by Ethnic Media Services.
Shah added that there is a lack of confidence in science and solutions to the pandemic will only be successful if people trust it, the vaccine and its two necessary doses - when they are available.
"When we talk about mouthpieces, it's not a political issue, it's a science issue," said one internist, who added that, based on what is known so far, they should continue to avoid large gatherings, pay attention to social distancing, use mouthpieces, stay home when sick and undergo a voluntary quarantine period after exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19.
In this regard, he noted that the medical corps, the media, social and political leaders must also work together to repeat the message of protection measures against COVID-19 whenever there is an opportunity to do so.
Dr. Ashish K. Jha, a health policy researcher and third dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, explained that the United States is experiencing record levels of infection on any given day since COVID-19 became a public health problem.
"We have 100,000 to 250,000 cases every day, but the actual figures for coronavirus in the United States show that there are 3,000 to 5,000 extra cases a day, but they are not identified because of inadequate testing," he said.
In response, he said: "From the thousand deaths we have every day, we will be up to two thousand a day by mid-December. And my estimate is that we're going to have about 100,000 more American deaths between now and the day that Joe Biden becomes president.
In that regard, he noted that, in the previous nine months of the pandemic, there has not been a moment where there has been more disconnection between how bad things are now and the little attention the nation is paying to it.
"We are so close to reaching a point where the pandemic begins to be controlled and, for me, it is particularly incomprehensible to lose another 100,000 Americans in the next two months when we know that we are close to possible and very effective vaccines, which will make a big difference. I think we're giving up right at the last moment, when many are suffering on the line and that's preventable," he said.
The also former director of the Harvard Institute for Global Health said the country is going through this time for three reasons: first, you have a federal government that did not take the pandemic seriously and did not take the necessary science-based action to stop the spread of the disease.
"New York public schools are closed but restaurants are still open. In Boston, the public schools are closed but the casinos are open. That's wrong, but looking at it from the financial side of the state, casinos generate income that schools don't," he said.
On the other hand, he said, there is no congressional support for states in which there is a bad financial situation, as well as for their citizens.
Thirdly, people are tired of the situation "and this is going to continue for a long time, they have not seen actions by the political leaders and that has made them lower their guard. That's why we are where we are now.
In this regard, Jha noted that while Joe Biden has limited power at the moment, he has always been very active and committed to the use of the mouthpiece and has recommended it, especially in states with a Republican majority, where there is a lot of skepticism about the health care measure.
He said there is inadequate sampling of people with VOC-19 because many test providers in the country have indicated that they cannot afford to make investments to create more tests, as they do not know if the government will buy them.
"Biden's team can start telling vendors they'll be in charge in two months and that they promise to acquire the evidence. That's a credibility that will have a great market signal for these companies," he said.
Both experts agreed that the latest data on the vaccine being prepared by Pfizer is encouraging; however, there will only be 10 to 20 million doses maximum by the end of the year, but it will be some time before there is widespread availability, as well as a secure supply chain that gets the two doses to everyone.
"They need to start achieving partial herd immunity, forget about full immunity, so if you're thinking about when life will return to normal, it will require multiple strategies in the short term, which means that in the next six months or a year, we can't just think about vaccines, but all the others - health measures," said Dr Nirav Shah.
He said the first people to receive vaccine doses will be those on the front lines, such as health workers and essential workers, and then move on to vulnerable groups and finally the rest of the population, so it's possible that the vaccine will actually reach everyone by 2022.
The challenges are enormous in terms of logistics for Pfizer's vaccine, which is 90 percent effective so far, because it must be kept refrigerated at -80 degrees Celsius, making it difficult to distribute in many places, not only in the country, but around the world.
Vaccines alone do not save lives, but vaccination does," added Dr. Ashish Jha, who pointed out that efforts must be made to ensure that everyone, but especially communities of African descent, understand the importance of being vaccinated, since this measure will not be mandatory.
"We're going to have to really engage with people, understand where their distrust comes from. Help with that, and involve community, civic and religious leaders. This is going to be everyone's job. If we don't do that hard work, only 30 or 40 percent of Americans will get vaccinated, but that won't be enough to control the pandemic," he estimated.
"There is a lot of work ahead for Biden's team, for the states, for public health leaders, for all of us, for journalists to clearly communicate to the American people what the benefits and challenges of the vaccine are," he added.
However, in addition to testing, vaccinations and health measures, tracking of COVID-19 cases is needed so that progress can be made in controlling the pandemic, they said.
"The tests alone will not work. Tracking alone won't work. Wearing a mask alone won't work. But all of it, taken together, will get us collectively to where we need to be.
They also noted that the use of the mouthpiece has become politicized, but science has proven effective in preventing the spread of the virus, so people need to understand what they are doing with their individual behavior and how it is affecting others.
William Shaffner, a professor of preventive medicine in the Department of Health Policy and a professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tenn.
So, he added, they will generate pain for several days at the site where they are applied, and they can cause fever and headache, which means the immune system is working with the vaccine to develop your protection. "It's not going to give you COVID-19. COVID-19 is not given in the vaccine. Please don't think that."
This, he said, will mean that, in a given location, the vaccines cannot be given on a single day, as many workers will not be able to go to work the next day. "So we're going to have to do this in phases, which will make all the logistics even more complicated.
He added that very few vaccines are 100 percent effective; however, 90 percent effectiveness is very good, although it's important to know that, for every 10 people vaccinated, one will be unprotected or only partially protected; however, you won't know who that might be.
"That's one of the many reasons why even people who are vaccinated can't throw away their masks. We're going to have to use the masks, maintain social distancing, and avoid large groups for a long period of time," she said.
Drs. Tung Nguyen and William Shaffer agreed that California has done an excellent job in managing the pandemic, especially in the northern part of the state, where cities like San Francisco have done an excellent job despite the fact that cases are on the rise.
As for the schools, they said, they represent a real problem because they have different policies on the control of the spread of the virus, and that is that those with more resources have more facilities to implement a variety of containment measures, unlike the others.
Although children have contracted COVID-19 the least, they are not immune, so in the face of any outbreak and based on data, schools have decided to close and thus avoid further spread.
