Activists say transformative changes in the American electorate are not reflected in national polls, distorting expectations and campaigns.
By Peter Schurmann. Ethnic Media Services.
On Tuesday night, Ruwa Romman became the first Muslim woman in history elected to the state legislature and the first Palestinian American to hold public office. Her victory capped a stronger-than-expected showing for Democrats that defied national polls.
Romman spoke during a Nov. 9 briefing hosted by the national nonprofit Emerge, which recruits and trains women who want to run for Democratic office.
“Last night, 141 women of color, 62 women under 45, and 21 Emerge LGBTQ alumnae won,” said Emerge President A’Shanti Gholar. She added that her organization fielded more than 650 candidates across the country this election cycle. “This signals that the new American majority continues to grow,” she said.
The question on many minds is how the Democrats managed to avoid the catastrophe that polls increasingly predicted. A touch of sensitivity and humanism won out over technology, according to Romman and other first-time candidates.
Romman's team knocked on more than 15,000 doors, sent some 75,000 text messages and made 9,000 phone calls in the new 97th District, just outside Atlanta, he said. And the message he got from voters was resoundingly clear.
“We heard from voters who said, ‘I want to vote for you because I know you will protect me,’” Romman said. She added that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp – who just won re-election, defeating his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams – “has not ruled out voting to ban contraceptives. People are very concerned about that here.”
Abortion, inflation, democracy — it was all on the ballot in an election that many viewed in existential terms. And while predictions of a Republican defeat began to mount in the final days of the season, Democrats delivered the best results for a sitting president in more than two decades.
Romman beat his Republican opponent by 15 points in what he described as a very close race that included anti-Muslim attacks from the opposing side.
Associated Press exit polls show Democrats holding a solid lead over Republicans among voters of color, though Republicans continue to gain ground among Latinos. Democrats are also favored among younger voters, which has important implications for the 2024 presidential race as more young people are of voting age.
For the speakers of the call, despite inflation problems and the president's unpopularity, the issue of abortion and reproductive health rights remains at the forefront of many voters' minds, even among some Republican men.
“We spoke to conservative white men who said they couldn’t vote Republican because of their concerns about women’s rights,” Romman said. “This is something that the polls haven’t fully captured.”
Gholar agreed. “If you attack someone’s rights, there will be consequences,” he said, describing the expected “red tsunami” as more of a “drop in the bucket.”
Gholar also echoed Romman, saying that polls that predicted a Republican onslaught failed to capture the “transformation” taking place in the electorate and that polls too often play a decisive role in channeling party dollars to favored candidates.
“Polls are tied to spending and we need to break that pattern,” he said. “We need a new system to understand the new American majority.”
Black candidates also did well in other races, such as in Texas, which will send its first two Muslim representatives to the state capital, and in Minnesota, where Black, Hmong, and Latina women won seats in their state legislature.
In Maryland, Aruna Miller, of Indian descent, became the state's first South Asian lieutenant governor. "It's a real milestone for the community and a continued reflection of the power of women to take leadership," told India Currents Shekar Narasimhan, founder and president of the AAPI Victory Fund.
And in Connecticut, Stephanie Thomas will become the first African-American woman in New England history to be elected Secretary of State. “It is also the first time that two black people will simultaneously hold a position in our executive branch,” she said, referring to Erick Russel, who won his race for state Treasurer. Russell is the first openly gay African American to win state office in the United States.
"People were angry about what was happening to women and they supported candidates who would protect those rights," Gholar said.
He also stressed the importance of the quality of the candidates.
“Between Dobbs promoting election deniers and attacking the safety net, Republicans did not help themselves,” he said. “Democrats offered voters a strong field of candidates. That’s why voters showed up.”
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