Pamela Cruz. Peninsula 360 Press [P360P].
"God always forgives; man, sometimes; nature, never."
California has seen only a glimpse of what climate change will bring in the future, and faces a twofold climate change challenge: finding cost-effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and preparing for the changes that are expected even if global emissions decline.
Greenhouse gas emissions pose a serious threat. The state experienced 7 of its 10 warmest years on record between 2012 and 2018, and warming is expected to continue.
Studies predict that sea levels will rise 2 to 7 feet along the California coast by 2100, and the frequency of extreme events such as droughts, heat waves, wildfires, and floods is expected to increase each year.
It should be noted that higher temperatures result in more precipitation falling as rain - and less as snow - which will increase both the frequency and magnitude of flooding and decrease water reserves in the Sierra snowpack, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) said in a report.
The state has taken climate change very seriously and has set increasingly ambitious emission reduction targets.
In 2018, then-Governor Jerry Brown issued an executive order calling for California to become carbon neutral by 2045, while Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order in 2019 to leverage $700 billion in investments to increase climate resilience, and in September 2020 signed an executive order for all new cars sold in California to be zero emissions by 2035.
The state's hope of reversing the seemingly unchecked process has increased after the arrival of Joseph Biden to the White House, the U.S. returns to the Paris Agreement and commits to significantly reduce its emissions, turning towards a greener future.
A PPIC poll reveals that about two in three Californians favor the state's emissions reduction targets, and most see California's global leadership on climate change.
The effects of climate change are already evident and will only worsen over time.
Sea level rise threatens coastal infrastructure, homes and habitat. 75 percent of California's population lives in coastal counties, and by 2040, more than 1,500 miles of roads and 100 miles of railroads will be at risk of flooding.
Seaports, airports, power plants, and sewage treatment plants have already experienced climate-induced flooding. Coastal habitat is highly vulnerable to sea level rise.
The "other great one
A UCLA study also found that, over the next 40 years, the state will be 300 to 400 percent more likely to have a prolonged storm sequence as severe as the one that caused California's now legendary flood more than 150 years ago.
The Great Flood of 1862 filled the valleys with feet of water and drove gold rush miners and their equipment out of the mountains. In the Central Valley, floods extended as much as 300 miles long and as much as 60 miles wide. One-third of the state's taxable land was destroyed and the then newly elected governor, Leland Stanford, was forced to paddle to his inauguration.
The situation could happen again, only with more catastrophic consequences because the state is much more populous than it was then. In 1862, California's population was 500,000; today, it is close to 40 million. Cities such as Stockton, Fresno and Bakersfield are located in places that were inundated by the flood of 1862.
In the event of such a massive storm, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) already has a name: "The Big Other". The name is a nod to the well-known nickname for the next big earthquake that scientists expect to occur along the San Andreas fault; however, the USGS does not predict that the two would be linked.
In 2011, the USGS prepared emergency planning guidelines for such a storm, which scientists say could occur once every 100 to 200 years.
The costs of such a storm could easily reach $1 trillion, more than double the cost of any previous natural disaster, and would devastate California economically and force millions to evacuate.
The impact would be magnified because such flooding could affect multiple regions across the state, including the Bay Area, Central Valley and Los Angeles Basin. In a state with the sixth largest economy in the world, several massive industries, including agriculture, Silicon Valley and Hollywood, would come to a standstill.
The coming floods could even change the state's geography permanently, said lead study author Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with UCLA's Institute for the Environment and Sustainability and The Nature Conservancy.
He added that much of the San Francisco Bay delta region is below sea level and a large enough flood could destroy the network of levees that hold back water, which would inundate vast swaths of currently dry land.
"I don't think most people in California really have a sense of the magnitude of this type of event," Swain said. "Millions of people living in the Central Valley, at a minimum, would have to leave for a while, and many may have their homes in less than 20 or 30 feet of water. This includes much of Sacramento."
Perhaps the only good news with such a massive storm is that residents would probably have at least a few days to prepare, unlike an earthquake, when, at best, there are only seconds of warning.
