Everything is boiling in Brazil right now. After the results of the first electoral round, the distance between Lula da Silva, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro, candidate for the Liberal Party (PL), is a dangerous distance. The most recent survey, in the 5th round of the second round (to be held on Sunday, October 30, 2022) places Lula above by only 6.41 TP3T, that is, a total of 53.21 TP3T in voting intentions and with 46.81 TP3T the current president Bolsonaro.
The numbers represent a part of how the electoral results work, but they have a margin of error and it is in the streets, on social networks, in the media and in the voting centers where it will be decided who will govern Brazil in the next 4 years. And what will be the fundamental structural decision that will sustain the next administration: on the one hand, a return to a certain state of well-being supported by assistance programs and long-term bank loans and on the other hand, a kind of barbarism.
For the entire country and for the continent, these elections also mean the possibility of a voracious destruction of natural resources in the Amazon, not only by agribusiness but also by the lack of interest that Bolsonaro has shown in the care and preservation of the largest lung in the world. On the contrary, for the current president, the important thing about power is to obtain economic gains and to reproduce endlessly his consolidation as a hegemonic political class.
These elections are also at stake in the increase in the circulation and possession of weapons on the streets of a country plagued by inequality, hunger and, above all, resentment, which is also fostered by government structures. Racism has not only not been eliminated, but has worsened, and the streets of the main cities cannot hide this reality: those who live there without access to decent housing are, for the most part, the Afro-descendant and indigenous population.
During a recent stay in Brazil for the first round of elections, I also had the opportunity to stay for a while and exchange ideas and reflections with many people from different social strata and backgrounds, with different professions, and in each of the opinions and assessments there are some common denominators that I would like to share right in this electoral season.
It is clear that whatever the result, the country will maintain a tension that may or may not grow, and this, especially considering a new Lula government, means that it needs a long teamwork to attack two fundamental fronts: on the one hand, governing for a diverse population with different needs but that requires attention to specific problems and that in four years, perhaps it will be possible to begin to address them. However, the other focus will be on defending the government itself from all the attacks and tricks that Bolsonaro and his people have planned (and those that occur to them), since they control the governorships and a significant part of Congress.
The mere possibility of an agrarian reform that curbs agribusiness could turn the tide and place this government in a position of strength and legitimacy unprecedented in Brazilian history, although unfortunately, this action has not been proposed or mentioned.
However, if the scenario results in a second term for Bolsonaro, what is needed is to consolidate a process of active and critical resistance to avoid, at all costs, the beginning of a period of