Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Bay sea level to rise half a meter by 2050, experts say

sea level
Pamela Cruz. Peninsula 360 Press [P360].

According to models used in the state of California's latest assessment of sea level rise, tides in the Bay could rise as much as .58 meters - 1.9 feet - by 2050, and as much as 2.10 meters - 6.9 feet - by the end of the century.

The situation does not look good for different cities that are located along the Bay Area, which already foresee possible flooding in the coming years due to storms that each year increase their intensity as a consequence, in large part, to climate change.

According to KQED, during the storms, East Palo Alto and other cities along the Bay shoreline already suffer from flooding and coastal erosion, which will only be exacerbated by the expected sea level rise.

"Sea level rise is one of the most certain effects of climate change. We know that much of that is already fixed, and we know that the seas will continue to rise at a steady and perhaps accelerating rate over the next few decades," said Mark Stacey, an environmental engineer at UC Berkeley.

In that sense, he pointed out that there are few differences between scientific modeling scenarios before 2050, however, these change drastically after mid-century according to the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions caused by the human race.

And it is that several studies do not differ from this analysis, where they determine that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica collapse. 

"But if that happens, the Bay Area could see a sea level rise of more than 10 feet by 2100, what Stacey calls a "massive acceleration" 30 to 40 times faster than the rate of rise we've seen over the past century," the media outlet said.

"This extends beyond the scope of what we have thought about in our planning horizon in terms of the magnitude of change we will face in this region," he added.

According to a state assessment, aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be substantially reduced, but not eliminated, and there is a risk of extreme sea level rise in California due to the loss of Antarctic ice.

This scenario, the study states, occurs in a context in which there are not enough global efforts to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Pamela Cruz
Pamela Cruz
Editor-in-Chief of Peninsula 360 Press. A communications expert by profession, but a journalist and writer by conviction, with more than 10 years of experience in the media. Specialized in medical and scientific journalism by Harvard and winner of the International Visitors Leadership Program scholarship from the U.S. government.

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