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Avian flu, Norovirus, Human Metapneumovirus and Oropouche, as well as the continuing threat of Covid-19, are some of the many public health crises the world will face in 2025, so vaccination will be key to avoiding tragedies like those seen in the pandemic.
This was stated by health experts during a conference held by Ethnic Media Services, who discussed the characteristics of each disease and strategies for its prevention.
For Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, founding director of the Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases at Boston University, climate change will be a key factor, as she said it influences the spread of infectious diseases, altering the distribution of vectors and increasing the vulnerability of health systems.
In this regard, he pointed out that climate-related disasters, such as forest fires, also indirectly impact public health by affecting access to medical supplies and resources.
“I am concerned about climate change and its impact on the spread of infectious diseases. We are seeing a lack of predictability in where diseases appear and how much more they can manifest due to changes in vectors and their distributions.”
He also stressed the importance of resilient public health systems to face these challenges, while recalling the importance of vaccination and its crucial role in resilience.
Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, and Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, both stressed the concern about seasonal flu, with hospitals and emergency rooms overwhelmed by influenza cases.
“If I had to pick one organism, I think influenza. Not just bird flu, but human influenza, which is starting to increase. I am concerned that the anti-science movement is preventing people from taking advantage of all the tools we have, including effective vaccination,” said Chin-Hong, who added that there is concern about anti-vaccine misinformation preventing people from taking advantage of the prevention tools available.
“Our emergency rooms and hospitals are full of people with the flu, and COVID is on the rise in my area. Annual flu vaccination is essential to protect the vulnerable population,” Shaffner said.
Under-vaccination is an emerging threat. According to Dr. Ben Newman, chief virologist for Global Health at the Texas A&M University Research Complex, the decline in adult vaccinations and the possibility of mandatory vaccinations for school-aged children being reduced could weaken herd immunity and increase the risk of outbreaks.
“I stick with undervaccination as a threat. Vaccines that would be given to adults are being given at a much lower level overall. It is possible that some of the safety net of herd immunity will be removed, which underscores the urgency of increasing vaccination rates,” he explained.
Schaffner described EMS worker Julian Doe's experience with a norovirus outbreak, highlighting its high contagiousness and the importance of hand hygiene with soap (hand sanitizers are not effective against this virus). Regarding HMPV, he said that although an outbreak is being observed in China, a global pandemic is not expected, and stressed the need for better diagnosis to better understand the disease.
Regarding Mpox, new variants and vaccination, Dr. Chin-Hong explained the emergence of a new mpox variant (clade 1B), more severe than the previous ones and with greater transmission capacity. He recommended the JYNNEOS vaccine for gay and bisexual men and for people with close contact with mpox cases.
In the case of Oropouche, he also warned of a significant increase in this virus and cases in South America and the Caribbean, and its possible transmission through sexual contact. He recommended the use of mosquito repellents with a high concentration of DEET or Picaridin.
COVID-19 is not gone, so Dr. Newman reported on the circulation of the XBC subvariant, although the predominant subvariants (JN1 and KP3) are covered by the available vaccines. He expressed concern about the decline in vaccination and the lack of public data on vaccine coverage by ethnic groups.
However, avian influenza has become a global threat; Dr. Bhadelia and Dr. Maurice Pitesky, associate professor in cooperative extension at the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, highlighted the expansion of avian influenza (H5N1) in several mammalian species, increasing the risk of transmission to humans.
The lack of an adequate surveillance system for agricultural workers, especially in vulnerable populations, is a cause for concern, they said.
In light of this, the need to develop new vaccines and implement strategies to improve access to vaccination for agricultural workers was discussed, including the possibility of a “grand bargain” between the government and the agricultural industry to guarantee compensation and access to vaccination.
“Vaccines don’t prevent disease, vaccination prevents disease. And what I’m concerned about are future policies that will erode our ability to fully administer vaccines to the population and further reduce trust in public health. There are no short-term solutions,” Schaffner explained.
The press conference concluded with a call to action to improve epidemiological surveillance, strengthen public trust in public health, and develop and implement strategies to ensure equitable access, as well as a stronger vaccination scheme.
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