Everything is boiling in Brazil right now. After the results of the first electoral round, the distance between Lula da Silva, candidate of the Workers' Party (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro, candidate for the Liberal Party (PL), is a dangerous gap. The most recent poll, on the eve of the second round (to be held on Sunday, October 30, 2022) places Lula ahead by only 6.41 TP3T, that is, a total of 53.21 TP3T in valid voting intentions and with 46.81 TP3T for the current president Bolsonaro.
The numbers represent a part of how the electoral results work, but they have a margin of error and it is in the streets, on social networks, in the media and in the voting centers that it will be decided who will govern Brazil in the next 4 years. And what will be the underlying structural decision that will sustain the next administration: on the one hand, a return to a certain state of well-being supported by assistance programs and long-term bank loans and on the other hand, a kind of barbarism.
For the entire country and for the continent, these elections also mean the possibility of a voracious destruction of natural resources in the Amazon, not only by agribusiness but also by the lack of interest shown by Bolsonaro in the care and preservation of the largest lung in the world. On the contrary, for the current president, the important thing about power is to obtain economic gains and endlessly reproduce his consolidation as the hegemonic political class.
These elections are also at stake in the increase in the circulation and possession of weapons on the streets of a country plagued by inequality, hunger and, above all, the resentment that is also fostered by government structures. Not only has racism not been eliminated, but it has become more acute and the streets of the main cities cannot hide this reality: those who live there without access to decent housing are, for the most part, Afro-descendant and indigenous people.
During a recent stay in Brazil for the first round of elections, I also had the opportunity to stay longer and exchange ideas and reflections with many people from different social strata and backgrounds, with different professions, and in each of the opinions and assessments there are some common denominators that I would like to share right on the eve of the elections.
It is clear that whatever the result, the country will remain under tension that may or may not grow, and this, especially considering a new Lula government, means that solid teamwork is needed to attack two fundamental fronts: on the one hand, governing for a diverse population with different needs but that requires attention to specific problems and that in four years, perhaps they can begin to address them. However, the other focus will be on defending the government itself from all the attacks and tricks that Bolsonaro and his people have planned (and whatever else they come up with), since they control the governorships and a significant part of Congress.
The mere possibility of an agrarian reform that curbs agribusiness could tip the balance and place this government in a position of strength and legitimacy unprecedented in Brazilian history, although unfortunately, this action has not been proposed or mentioned.
However, if the scenario turns out to be a second term for Bolsonaro, what is needed is to consolidate a process of active and critical resistance to avoid, at all costs, the beginning of an even darker period. Resistance implies that different sectors find their common ground and make alliances to confront new economic and political attacks by Bolsonarism, openly violent and arrogant. Perhaps it is time to resume many discussions that do not place the political tradition of the party at the center but rather the search for alternatives that traverse this moment through other paths.
There are many organized sectors, from quilombola women, indigenous communities, homeless movements, the Landless Workers Movement (MST), cultural movements in every corner of Brazil, the consolidation of a movement of black women who are occupying relevant positions in politics, critical religious movements, LGBTQA+ communities, favelas and peripheral regions. All these experiences of fighting for a better life have a lot to contribute, always, historically, and today it is history.
The third common denominator is that the future of this country will not be decided only in elections but in the active participation of all sectors in the construction of solutions for the oldest problems: health, education, work, housing, culture, justice, freedom, democracy. It is essential to understand that governments, under the capitalist model, do not create better conditions even though they rhetorically claim to do so; it is not possible to build life projects with the same tools of the system that is based on exploitation and the generation of more economic power.
And that is not possible in a conjuncture but it is the work of a lifetime.
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