As the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates, the world is gravitating toward a conflict on the scale of World War II, with the possibility of the world's greatest military and economic powers engaging in open and devastating war.
The possibility of humans extending an armed conflict beyond our planet, in a space war, may seem like science fiction, but the fact is that it is already happening.
Eyes in the Sky
“If the enemy is strong on all sides, prepare yourself. If he has superior strength, evade him… Attack where he is not prepared, appear where you are not expected.” ‒Tsun Zu, The Art of War, 5th century BC‒.
It was the invention of radar that changed the face of air combat in World War II. Britain erected a wall of radio bases that enabled them to detect Nazi aircraft before they reached their territory. Wherever the Germans attempted an attack, they found the Royal Air Force ready to meet them in the air.
This is a small example of the importance of intelligence and reconnaissance in armed conflicts.
Of course, in the 21st century we have left radar behind to make way for satellites that reveal every corner of our planet in real time and in full colour.
The Union of Conscious Scientists ‒UCS, for its acronym in English‒, which is an organization of scientists and engineers who seek to develop and implement practical and innovative solutions to solve some of the most pressing problems on the planet, such as reducing the threat of nuclear war, among others, estimated the existence of 6,542 satellites around our planet in 2021, of these, only 3,372 are actively operating.
This means that there are thousands of satellites constantly transmitting information and images to Earth.
It is impossible to imagine a scenario in which the national army of one of the military powers of our planet would advance or plan an attack with thousands of eyes in the sky transmitting its every move. That is why, in November last year, Russia conducted a test and demonstration of an anti-satellite missile – ASAT – aimed at one of its inactive satellites.
China, the US and India also possess anti-satellite weapons, but they are not the only ones interested in the militarization of space. France and England have begun to discuss defensive space policies.
Experts predict that these discussions will lead to international space treaties, thereby initiating regulations in Earth's orbit.
Former US President George W. Bush envisaged allocating the budget of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to build a network of orbital weapons. Its aim was to intercept "enemy" missiles as well as shoot down other satellites.
The budget proposal was rejected by the US Congress in 2009 for being “too futuristic” and “underdeveloped” as indicated by the Arms Control Association report.
The scientific community warned at the time that the creation of orbital or space weapons would mean the beginning of an unprecedented arms race. But above all, it would put at risk the security of American satellites and communications, as well as that of its allies.
The problems arising from a first war outside Earth imply a serious threat of creating space debris. Any object that is set in motion in space will continue moving until it is attracted by the gravity of a planet or collides with another object. In this sense, any debris that enters Earth's orbit increases the possibility of damaging satellites, space stations and, in general, increasing the risk of collisions in any future space incursion.
The Cold War is not over, it just changed borders
"Introducing the principle of moderation into the theory of war itself will always lead to absurdity" ‒Carl von Clausewitz, On War, 1832‒.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, an era of nuclear tensions seemed to have ended. We emerged from a world clouded by fear of the atom with an attitude of hope for the future and international cooperation. We were no longer divided but united under a single doctrine of global trade and cooperation.
The International Space Station was one of the key moments in this dream of prosperity. Space then belonged to no one nation, the final frontier would be explored by humanity as a whole as we approach the edge of the unknown.
However, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has not only revived distrust between neighbours with weapons of mass destruction, it has also put the question of who owns space back on people's minds. Is it an act of aggression to place military satellites over another country? Where does a nation's sovereign area end? Are there Chinese satellites spying on us right now?
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