"When you see your neighbor's beard cut, put yours to soak," says an old saying. And it could even seem cabalistic that Honduras, along with six other countries, abstained from casting its vote in the Organization of American States (OAS) on the resolution that declared the elections of November 7 in Nicaragua illegitimate, just a few days before Hondurans elect their next president, among other officials.
There are exactly 13 days left until “The” election that could determine the fate of Honduras takes place. However, political violence has not ceased. Just this Sunday, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed its “concern” over the violent deaths recorded in recent hours in the Central American country.
"We observe with concern the violent deaths in the electoral context of the current mayor and candidate of the municipality of Cantarranas, Francisco Gaitán; the local leader of San Luis, Santa Bárbara, Elvir Casaña; and Luis Gustavo Castellanos, of San Jerónimo, Copán," the organization highlighted through its Twitter account.
He added that since the call for primary elections, at least 28 deaths have been recorded in the context of political violence.
The OHCHR condemned acts of electoral violence that affect the right to political participation and called on the actors involved to carry out peaceful elections with respect for human rights.
"We stand in solidarity with the victims and their families and call on the authorities to carry out prompt, thorough and impartial investigations to identify and punish those responsible," he said.
Honduras is aware of electoral fraud. In 2014, Juan Orlando Hernández came to power, and just one year later he implemented a constitutional reform to make his re-election possible.
In 2017, general elections were held again to choose who would be in power for 4 years (the time established by the Honduran constitution), however, these were marked by three key points: first, that Hernández's opponents accused him of shaping the institutions to stay in office; second, that on election day the results changed direction after a "blackout", giving Juan Orlando as the winner again; and third, that 33 protesters died in the subsequent protests.
All this, after the country experienced one of its darkest moments, as it suffered a coup d'état in 2009. From then on, the die was cast. The country has suffered serious damage to its economy, job creation, health - which has been aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic -, education, migration, and a host of other problems that run from one end to the other in the country, which, according to various rankings in the world, has two of the most dangerous cities in the world: Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula.
According to the National Observatory of Violence-IUDPAS/UNAH-Honduras, homicides have been "the most common form of violence against political actors in Honduras."
According to the Center for the Study of Democracy in Honduras (CESPAD), since the call for the primary elections until October 25, there have been 27 deaths, 18 cases of coercion, 11 attacks, six threats, one kidnapping and one coercion.
Of the reported incidents, the statement said, 36 were committed with firearms.
They also highlighted that, to date, and according to data from IUDPAS, 36.0 percent of the victims have been militants: 13 leaders and 10 sympathizers.
In light of this, CESPAD has made an urgent call for the imperative need for "electoral institutions to work to at least try to prevent violence from continuing to threaten the electoral process."
This, they stated, makes the National Electoral Council (CNE) use the regulations that allow it to establish administrative sanctions for those who provoke violence and verbal expressions of hatred and offense.
In addition, the CNE initiative for a Pact for Peace, signed by all political parties participating in the electoral contest, is expressly implemented with the purpose of discouraging and neutralizing political violence.
The organization also said that the justice system should act independently and efficiently in the investigation and prosecution of acts of political violence, since impunity, that is, the lack of punishment, is the main stimulus for this phenomenon.
"CESPAD expresses its deep concern about the current climate of political violence, because it does not contribute to the democratic process and, on the contrary, discourages citizen participation, thereby weakening the citizen's right to vote in a peaceful and trustworthy environment," they stressed.
The coming storm
The National Electoral Council of Honduras has considered that everything is on schedule for the general elections to be carried out properly, however, and "in theory" it guarantees that the elections will be clean and without setbacks.
This is what Rixi Moncada, a member of the CNE, told this newspaper. This institution was created in 2019 and will be in charge of these elections for the first time.
When questioned about whether these will be clean elections, the councilor stressed that "formally yes", since "the full councilors have worked with hundreds of obstacles these two years and a month, to have an electoral process different from that of 2013 and 2017".
He also stated that in order to achieve elections of true change, the Council administers, organizes and guarantees that it can arrive on election day with the electoral material in each of the polling stations, despite the fact that the conditions in the country are "quite complex."
However, the official said that the key and most difficult moments of the elections will occur after the polls close, when the counting will begin, and on the evening of November 28, Rixi will be the one to give the preliminary results, and from there, anything could happen.
Violence, Drugs, and Elections: Together and Hand in Hand
Nothing is simple in these elections. Earlier this month, Honduran authorities arrested presidential candidate Santos Rodríguez Orellana, a retired army captain accused of laundering drug money and participating in homicides, including an informant for the United States Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA).
This is not the only case, as just a few weeks ago, authorities raided properties belonging to the mayor of the municipality of Talanga, department of Francisco Morazán, Roosevelt Eduardo Avilez López, by the Directorate for the Fight against Drug Trafficking - DLCN - for alleged money laundering.
Avilez was unable to justify more than 160 million lempiras - a little over 6.5 million dollars - in relation to the amount he earns as income; while his wife, Nancy Mareyil Santos Ríos - also detained - was found to have another 150 million lempiras - 6.1 million dollars - which could not be accredited either.
The coin is in the air, and in the meantime we can only hope that, despite the scenarios, the "perfect storm" does not occur and trigger post-election terror.
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