Pamela Cruz. Peninsula 360 Press [P360].
So far, there are 10.5 million accumulated cases in the U.S. and 250,000 deaths due to COVID-19 due to the lack of follow-up of sanitary measures to prevent the spread of the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, so that specialists foresee that a third wave of the virus will leave, by mid-December, 2,000 deaths per day.
According to Tung Nguyen, professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), between 120 and 150 thousand people are infected daily and about a thousand die, so that, when entering a third outbreak, the numbers will be much higher compared to the first two.
"This is happening at a very difficult time, the flu season has not even started and we are already receiving reports that hospitals are receiving a significant number of patients. In addition, health care workers are also dying and we have reached the point where there is no longer enough staff to care for the increasing number of patients," said Nguyen.
In this regard, he explained that anyone with a medical condition requiring hospitalization over the next few months will be impacted by the current escalation of cases in the country.
For his part, Dr. Nirav R. Shah, senior researcher at Stanford University's Research Center for Clinical Excellence, stressed that the current figures should not cause surprise and one should not have to wait until the new incoming federal administration, headed by President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, start making changes to see positive results.
"The lack of leadership at many levels has brought us to this point and what we need is a strong, unified voice that we all agree on and that will bring us back in control, as other countries have done," stressed Nirav R. Shah during the virtual session "COVID-19 Infections Rise as U.S. Faces Third Wave of Pandemic," conducted by Ethnic Media Services.
Shah added that there is a lack of trust in science and solutions to the pandemic will only be successful if people trust in it, the vaccine and its two necessary doses ?when they become available?
"When we talk about masks, it is not a political issue, it is a science issue," said the also an internist who added that, based on what is known so far, they should continue to avoid large gatherings, pay attention to social distancing, wear masks, stay home when sick and undergo a voluntary period of quarantine after being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19.
In this regard, he pointed out that the medical profession, the media, social leaders and politicians must also work together to repeat the message of protective measures against COVID-19 every time they have the opportunity to do so.
Ashish K. Jha, M.D., health policy researcher and third dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, explained that the U.S. is having record levels of contagion than on any other day since COVID-19 became a public health problem.
"We have between 100,000 and 250,000 cases every day, but the actual numbers for coronavirus in the United States show that there are between 3,000 and 5,000 extra cases a day, but they are not identified because of inadequate testing," he said.
In response, he said, "From the 1,000 deaths we have every day, we will be going up to 2,000 a day by mid-December. And my estimate is that we're going to have about a hundred thousand more American deaths between now and the day Joe Biden becomes president."
In that regard, he noted that, in the nine months prior to the pandemic, there has not been a time when there has been more of a disconnect between how bad things are now and how little attention the nation is paying to them.
"We are so close to getting to a point where the pandemic starts to be controlled and, to me, it is particularly incomprehensible to lose another 100,000 Americans in the next two months when we know we are close to possible and very effective vaccines, which will make a huge difference. I think we are giving up just at the last minute when so many are suffering on the line and it is preventable," he inferred.
The also former director of the Harvard Global Health Institute pointed out that the country is going through this moment due to three reasons: first, it has a federal government that did not take the pandemic seriously and did not take the necessary measures based on science to stop the spread of the disease.
"New York public schools are closed but restaurants are still open. In Boston, the public schools are closed but the casinos are open. That's wrong, but looking at it from the financial side of the state, casinos generate revenue that schools don't," he noted.
On the other hand, he said, there is no help from Congress to the states, in which there is a bad financial situation, as well as their citizens.
Thirdly, people are tired of the situation "and this is going to remain for a long time, they have not seen action from political leaders and that has made them let their guard down. That's why we are where we are now."
In this regard, Jha pointed out that while Joe Biden has limited power at the moment, he has always been very active and committed to the use of face masks and has recommended them, especially in states with a Republican majority, where there is a great deal of skepticism about such a health measure.
He added that there is an inadequate sampling of people with COVID-19 because many test providers in the country have indicated that they cannot afford to make investments to create more tests, as they do not know if the government will buy them.
"The Biden team can start telling suppliers that they will be in office in two months and that they promise to procure the tests. That's a credibility that will have a big market signal for these companies," he specified.
Both specialists agreed that the latest data on the vaccine being prepared by the Pfizer laboratory are encouraging; however, there will only be between 10 and 20 million doses maximum by the end of the year, but it will be some time before there is widespread availability, as well as a secure supply chain to get the two doses for everyone.
"They need to start achieving partial herd immunity, forget about full immunity, so if you are thinking about when life will return to normal, it will require multiple strategies in the short term, which means, in the next six months to a year, we can't just think about vaccines, it will be all the other ?health measures?" said Dr. Nirav Shah.
In that sense, he pointed out that the first people to receive the vaccine doses will be those who are in the front line of combat, such as health care workers and essential workers, and then move on to vulnerable groups and, finally, to the rest of the population, so it is possible that the vaccine will really reach everyone until 2022. ?
The challenges are enormous in terms of logistics for Pfizer's vaccine, which so far has a 90 percent effectiveness rate, as it must remain refrigerated at -80 degrees Celsius, which makes its distribution difficult in many places, not only in the country, but also in the world.
And the fact is that "vaccines alone do not save lives, but vaccination does," added Dr. Ashish Jha, who pointed out that we must work to ensure that everyone, but especially communities of African descent, understand the importance of getting vaccinated, since this measure will not be mandatory.
"We're going to have to really engage with people, understand where their distrust is coming from. Help with that, and involve community, civic and religious leaders. This is going to be everybody's job. If we don't do that hard work, only 30 to 40 percent of Americans will get vaccinated, but that won't be enough to control the pandemic," he estimated.
"There's a lot of work ahead for Biden's team, for the states, for public health leaders, for all of us, for journalists to communicate clearly to the American people what the benefits and challenges of the vaccine are," he added.
However, in addition to testing, vaccines and sanitation measures, tracking of COVID-19 cases is needed so that progress can be made in controlling the pandemic, they said.
"Testing alone will not work. Tracking alone won't work. Wearing face masks alone won't work. But all of it, taken together, will collectively get us where we need to be."
Similarly, they stressed that the use of face masks has been politicized, but science has proven its effectiveness in preventing the spread of the virus, so it is necessary for people to understand what they are doing with their individual behavior and how it is affecting other people.
William Shaffner, Professor of Preventive Medicine in the Department of Health Policy and Professor of Medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee, added that potential COVID-19 vaccines are reactive.
So, he added, they will generate pain for several days at the site where they are applied, can cause fever and headache, which means that the immune system is working with the vaccine to develop your protection. "You're not going to get COVID-19. COVID-19 is not given in the vaccine. Please don't think that."
The above, he said, will mean that, at a given site, the vaccines cannot be given in a single day, as many workers will not be able to go to work the next day. "So we're going to have to do this in phases, which will make all the logistics even more complicated."
He added that very few vaccines are 100 percent effective; however, a 90 percent effectiveness rate is very good, although it is important to know that, out of every 10 people vaccinated, one will have no or partial protection; however, it is not known who it may be.
"That's one of the many reasons why even people who are vaccinated can't throw away their masks. We're going to have to wear the masks, maintain social distancing, and avoid large groups for a long period," he estimated.
Drs. Tung Nguyen and William Shaffer agreed that California has done an excellent job in managing the pandemic, especially in the northern part of the state, where cities like San Francisco have done an excellent job even though cases are on the rise.
As for the schools, they said, they represent a real problem because they have different policies on the control of the spread of the virus, and those with greater resources have more facilities to implement a variety of containment measures, unlike the others.
Although children are the ones who have contracted COVID-19 the least, they are not immune, which is why, in the event of any outbreak and based on data, schools have decided to close and thus avoid further contagion.
