By René Estrada/Center for the Study of Democracy (Cespad)
With less than 40 days to go until the general elections in Honduras, Hondurans are getting ready to choose the new president of the Republic, the deputies of the new national congress and the members of the next municipal corporations. However, there are many and diverse issues of national and international relevance and weight that are key to understanding the context in which an electoral process that will define the future of this nation is taking place.
With three presidential candidates leading in popular opinion polls, it appears that the race will be decided between candidate Nasry Asfura of the National Party, an institution that has been named multiple times in U.S. courts for ties to drug trafficking. Also, Xiomara Castro of Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE), a political party that is now part of an alliance with the Salvador de Honduras (PSH) party, and the candidate for the Liberal Party (PL), Yani Rosenthal, who a few months ago returned to the country after facing a conviction for money laundering in the United States.
These three characters go into an electoral contest in the midst of a variety of problems in which stand out the fight against corruption, against drug trafficking, the need for job creation and a set of serious social problems such as irregular migration, poverty and inequality, and the continued violation of human rights.
An electoral process marred by violence
A regrettable characteristic of this electoral cycle is the constant acts of violence against different candidates and supporters of the parties in contention. To date, more than 20 murders of people directly linked to the political institutions registered in the electoral process have been recorded.
But apart from the inter-party violence, Honduras is in a crisis of social violence due to the extractivist policies and concessions granted by the government of Juan Orlando Hernandez, which have generated a permanent socio-territorial struggle in various regions, which worsened since the military coup d'état in 2009.
A clear example of how violence towards historically excluded groups has increased in the 12 years of nationalist governments is the approval of the Special Economic Development Zones (ZEDE), a project of "model cities" or "states within a state" that directly violates the sovereignty of the country and also intensifies territorial dispossession, racism, and aggravates the poverty of indigenous and peasant communities in the country.
Many sectors consider that these elections could be the rupture or continuity of these projects that function with the logic of enclaves, taking as an example the mining and banana enclaves that promise economic development to the communities but, in reality, leave the indigenous and peasants without land, with violence and with no generation of jobs.
Poverty and Migration
In the last 10 years, Honduras has reported poverty rates around 60%, however, due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the passage of tropical storms Eta and Iota, the country has worsened economically and financially, and currently 7 out of 10 Hondurans live in poverty.
As a result of inequality and lack of opportunities, irregular migration has increased in parallel with poverty. An example of this is the multiple caravans of migrants leaving Honduras for the United States. This social phenomenon has caused more than one million Hondurans to reside in the northern country and around 500,000 to settle in countries such as Mexico, Spain and the Central American region.
Welfare votes
Within the campaign strategies of the National Party, the welfare policy of the current administration has functioned as a machine for "buying votes". Programs such as the Better Life Platform allow the governing party to make use of state coffers and public funds to position itself in the most vulnerable areas of the country.
Practices such as the delivery of solidarity bags, sheets for the construction of roofs and even the installation of floors, have created a certain dependence on the elected; at election time these practices increase and largely condition the vote.
Manuel Ortiz, from www.peninsula360Pressand Lucía Vijil, of the Center for the Study of Democracy (CESPAD), summarize the context in which the 2021 general elections are taking place. Their analysis, aired on the U.S. radio program ?Hecho en California? he closed with the phrase ?Honduras has received very little attention from the international press, organizations and especially different interest groups in the United States despite the alarming situation.?.
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