By Pamela Cruz. Peninsula 360 Press [P360P] .
Several coastal communities in San Mateo County, California, including half of the homes in East Palo Alto, are at risk of financial instability due to social factors or anticipated flooding through 2060, according to research from Stanford.
Using a methodology that incorporates socioeconomic data on neighborhood clusters of approximately 1,500 people, the scientists found that even with flood insurance coverage, these residents would be unable to pay for damages, which could lead to homelessness or bankruptcy.
"These are workers who make a city work, they are the heart and soul of an urban operation. If you displace a significant majority too far from the urban area, the functionality of that city falls apart," said the study's co-lead author, Jenny Suckale.
Also an assistant professor of geophysics at Stanford's School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences, she asked, "How can we make sure we provide a future for these communities that doesn't involve their disintegration?"
Flood damage estimates are usually calculated by civil engineers in terms of monetary damage to physical structures.
The paper recently published in the journal Earth's Future notes that with the new model, called the Stanford Urban Risk Framework (SURF), the researchers bring a human-centered approach to risk assessment, specifically to residents most likely to lose their livelihoods when water floods their homes.
It also determines that while all households within the projected flood plain will be affected by flood damage, the socio-economic context determines how damaging the costs will be.
Over 50 percent of San Mateo Coast households will face financial instability
"If you just look at the dollar amount, you're missing a major component of the problem," Suckale said. "What might be a nuisance in some communities is life-changing in other communities; it's really about proximity to a tipping point."
Despite uncertainty about the magnitude of future climate change, researchers agree that rising sea levels will increase coastal flooding, a danger that residents from Foster City to East Palo Alto have already experienced in recent decades.
Many of the most at-risk neighborhoods comprise single-parent households and are more racially diverse than the San Mateo County average, according to the research.
"Climate change isn't just about it getting hotter or sea levels rising, it's literally going to change the entire fabric of society, especially if we continue to ignore it," said another lead author of the study, Avery Bick.
Because San Mateo County includes both very wealthy and low-income residents, averaging the costs of flooding compared to the incomes of its residents on a countywide scale "makes it look like you don't have much of a problem," Suckale said.
However, he noted that by assessing impacts on a smaller scale, researchers were able to highlight areas of concern in a way that is more directly useful to policymakers.
