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2024 elections could mark a record for Latino votes
With just over two weeks to go until the general elections in the United States, which are scheduled for November 5, the Democratic candidate for president, Kamala Harris, maintains a lead of more than 25 points among Latinos in key swing states and on key political issues.
This is in accordance with a survey conducted by two of the country's leading Latino organizations, the Hispanic Federation and the Latina Victory Foundation, which states that a clear majority of Latinos say they trust Harris more than Donald Trump on issues such as health care, reproductive rights, immigration reform, cost reduction, climate change and gun violence.
The survey, conducted by BSP Research from October 2 to 10, polled 1,900 Latino voters in key states (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia), and revealed that the Latino electorate remains motivated to vote, with greater enthusiasm in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The survey results suggest that Latino voter enthusiasm and participation remain high: 71 percent of Latinos report that they plan to vote in this election and 74 percent say they are closely following news and information about the election.
Additionally, the analysis shows that, for the first time this cycle, a clear majority (64 percent) of Latinos in battleground states report having had contact with Latino campaigns and civic organizations to encourage them to vote.
Although there has been much media coverage of Latinos flirting with the Republican Party, the poll found no evidence of a Latino ideological shift when it comes to political issues.
In fact, she noted, Latinos say by a 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1 margin that they support progressive policy issues to allow women's reproductive freedom, ban assault rifles, increase regulations to address climate change, raise taxes on corporations and billionaires, provide a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and support full marriage equality for LGBTQ+ Americans.
In political matters, the Latino community says it is looking for a federal government that promotes equality and protects their rights and freedoms.
“This new poll provides crucial information about Latino voters in battleground states across the country as they prepare to head to the polls and shape the outcome of the 2024 election through their votes,” said Frankie Miranda, president and CEO of the Hispanic Federation.
"Latinos are emerging as a critical voting bloc in many of the country's most competitive battleground states, and it is essential that candidates address their concerns and priorities. We are committed to continuing our work with our partners across the country to advance the priorities of the 64 million Latinos living in the United States," he added.
For his part, Luis A. Miranda, Jr., president of Latino Victory, explained that, in the past, Latino voters were considered to affect only a small handful of states, from Cuban Americans in Florida, Puerto Ricans in New York, to Mexican Americans in Texas, California and the Southwest.
However, he said, with the increasing dispersion of Latinos in the United States today, and with this election so close, a very small percentage of votes can and will make a difference in the battleground states.
"Of the seven battleground states surveyed, more than 70 percent of the registered Latino electorate is almost certain they will vote on November 5. Vice President Harris has a double-digit lead, but former President Trump does not need a majority of our vote; just enough to tip the balance in a state," she stressed.
Matt Barreto, founding partner and president of BSP Research, said Latino voters are paying attention, increasing their enthusiasm for the election and ready to vote in record numbers.
“The poll makes it clear that the transition from Biden to Harris on the Democratic ticket created a wave of enthusiasm and support among Latino voters. Harris continues to see increases in her favorability and support numbers compared to August and it is clear that Latino voters can cast the decisive votes in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and more.”
Key findings from the poll include: 71 percent of registered Latino voters are almost certain they will vote in the 2024 presidential election; Harris’s appearance has generated growing enthusiasm among key segments of the Latino electorate; and 60 percent of respondents said they are more interested in voting as Vice President Harris enters the presidential race.
He also found that the new enthusiasm is especially true for younger and more Spanish-speaking Latinos, while cost of living and inflation remain, by a wide margin, the top issues for Latinos in the battleground states, with 59 percent citing them as the top problem.
On the other hand, he found that jobs (38 percent) and housing costs and affordability (32 percent) rank high after inflation for Latino voters in key states.
Beyond economic concerns, one in four Latinos in the battleground states cited abortion and reproductive rights as a top priority issue.
Other top concerns for Latinos in key states were gun violence (20 percent), U.S.-Mexico border issues (16 percent) and access to affordable health care (15 percent).
A clear majority (64 percent) of Latinos in battleground states report having had contact with Latino campaigns and civic organizations encouraging them to vote.
In a combined two-way poll, Harris led former President Donald Trump by 28 points in the seven battleground states, up four points from the organizations' last poll in August, with 62 percent of Latino registered voters in the battleground states indicating they will vote for Harris compared to 34 percent for Trump.
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