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A new poll finds that in six key states, a majority of voters support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants over mass deportation. It also reveals that large majorities support increased border security.
The findings offer a rare point of bipartisan agreement on what is one of the most contentious issues defining this election season.
Voters can relate to the arguments on both sides, said Dr. Steven Kull of the Public Consultation Program at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, which conducted the survey. surveyBut when they reason, do they come to this conclusion?
The poll questioned 3,616 residents in six battleground states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia) in English and Spanish between Sept. 23 and Oct. 1, with a margin of error of ±3.2 percent.
Respondents were asked to rate arguments on a variety of immigration and border-related issues, including increased border security, building a border wall and the question of what to do about the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the country.
The survey questions were designed around past and current policy proposals put forward by both parties.
“The survey puts respondents in the shoes of a policymaker,” Kull said during an Oct. 10 Zoom press conference announcing the results. “They have to evaluate the arguments” and then make a decision.
On the question of undocumented immigrants, respondents were asked to weigh one of two options: creating a new type of visa that would be available to those who have been living and paying taxes in the country for some years and have not committed a serious crime that would eventually allow them to apply for citizenship, or undertaking a mass deportation program that would draw on local police, the National Guard and possibly the military, at a cost of $100 billion or more.
The first option comes from the American Citizenship Act of 2023, proposed by Congresswoman Linda Sanchez (D-CA District 38), while the second is taken directly from the 2024 Republican Platform.
Across all six states, 58 percent of respondents favor a path to citizenship, compared with just 26 percent who support mass deportation. "Across all demographic groups -- including race, ethnicity, gender, age, income and education -- majorities prefer a path to citizenship, in the key states as a whole and nationally," the poll found.
Support for a pathway to citizenship was lowest in Pennsylvania (55 percent), a key swing state and one where Republicans were evenly split on the issue, and highest in Nevada (65 percent). Higher-income earners were also more in favor of a pathway to citizenship (68 percent) compared with those making less than $50,000 (55 percent), possibly reflecting concerns about job security among lower-wage workers.
Experts warn that for farm states like California, Trump's mass deportation proposal would be ?disastrous?, causing massive disruption in communities and “spurring price increases in supermarkets across the country,” given the large proportion of farmworkers who are undocumented.
On border security, significant majorities in both parties — 74 percent for Republicans and 71 percent for Democrats — supported increasing the number of Border Patrol agents from the current 20,000 to 22,000, along with increased funding for surveillance technology.
There is also strong bipartisan support (74 percent nationally) for increasing the number of immigrant work visas and requiring employers to use E-Verify to ensure applicants have a legal right to work in the country. A majority also supports hiring more immigration judges to ease the backlog of more than one million asylum cases currently pending.
Building a border wall followed largely traditional partisan lines, with 55 percent of respondents overall and less than half of Democrats in favor.
A recent bipartisan border package that would have achieved some of these results — including fewer border crossings and stricter requirements for asylum seekers — was torpedoed by Republicans earlier this year, reportedly under pressure from Trump, who feared losing immigration as a campaign issue.
This is the ninth in a series of surveys looking at public opinion on a variety of issues in key states, conducted by the Public Consultation Program. Previous surveys examined attitudes on abortion, the international security, the energy and the environmentand the health care, among other issues.
Interested parties can take the survey themselves. here..
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