Three highly effective COVID-19 vaccines are being used in the United States and have been shown to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reduce deaths from the disease. According to a study these immunizations prevented the deaths of nearly 140,000 people and three million cases during the first five months they were available.
As of this August, about half of the population has been vaccinated on the full schedule, but vaccination rates vary across the country, with some states making much faster progress than others.
A team led by Sumedha Gupta, Ph.D., of Indiana University and Christopher Whaley, Ph.D., of the RAND Corporation analyzed how the vaccine rollout impacted the drop in deaths from COVID-19. Their study is one of the first to evaluate the impact of statewide vaccination campaigns.
To determine the speed of vaccination in each state, the researchers used data from government websites and official statements.
The study looked at the period from Dec. 21, 2020, to May 9, 2021. They compared the time it took each state to reach a series of goals, starting with five doses of vaccine per 100 adults, up to 120 doses per 100 adults. They also calculated the number of vaccine doses per 100 adults at the end of each week.
The team used the data to create a statistical model. They then examined the relationship between state vaccination intensity and changes in COVID-19 deaths. The model accounted for the lag between vaccination and the effects on death rates.
According to the model, COVID-19 vaccines prevented more than 139,000 deaths during the first five months.
About 570,000 COVID-19 deaths had occurred in the country as of May 9; however, the model projects that about 709,000 deaths would have occurred without the vaccines.
The researchers estimated that the economic value of preventing these deaths was between $625 billion and $1.4 trillion.
The estimated reduction in deaths was variable among states. In New York, for example, the vaccines resulted in an estimated 11.7 fewer COVID-19 deaths per 10,000 people; Hawaii had the smallest estimated reduction, with 1.1 fewer deaths per 10,000 individuals.
While the study had limitations that may have affected the estimates, the results highlight the crucial role of vaccines in saving lives during the pandemic.
"This study highlights the dramatic success of the first few months of the nation's coronavirus vaccine rollout," said one of the lead authors of the research, Christopher Whaley.
The findings support policies that further expand vaccine delivery, particularly to low-income and minority populations.
So far, according to Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. has administered 369 million 117,822 doses of one of the three vaccines available in the country, Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson.
The state of California has administered the largest number of doses with 48 million 12,379, followed by Texas with 30 million 165,551 doses, Florida with 24 million 897,414 doses, and New York with 24 million 370,206 doses.
In the case of California, more than 80 percent of the eligible population has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, ranking it No. 9 in the nation and No. 1 among the largest states.
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